"What if, just what if..." Scenarios

I've been thinking about putting up some "what if" scenarios on my blog as a way of stimulating thinking and discussion about how things could change, sometimes almost in an eyeblink, and what the impact of those changes would be for individuals and also for large groups, even societies. In doing this I walk a fine line because I don't want to produce unnecessary anxiety in those who are prone to excess anxiety. Yet, this type of "exercise" may sharpen our appreciation for the abundance we presently have, and also to recognize the fragility of this complex system when a pivotal piece of the whole is no longer available, or is jeopardized.

The first topic comes from a presentation made by Dmitry Orlov and entitled: Closing the Collapse Gap. In it he discusses the collapse of the Russian empire at the end of the cold war, and then makes a general statement that one of the lessons of history is that empires come and empires go. They all go, and some of them collapse fairly rapidly. The collapse of the Russian empire was a clear case in point.

He then asks an interesting question: "what lessons could the United States learn from the Russian collapse?" He explores that question through a "compare and contrast" process. In walking you through a series of slides he draws some conclusions which are disquieting to say the least.

Let me take just one of his observations. He says that the suffering experienced by the Russian people was terrible. No doubt about that. But he also says that as bad as it was, it in a sense was made easier because of several factors. For example, he says that they had no expectation that the Russian government would come to their rescue. They never had that expectation based on decades of experience. After the collapse they experienced terrible despair and apathy and confusion but they knew they would have to deal with it on their own. There was to be no "methadone" for them in that crisis; it was a "cold turkey" withdrawal. By contrast, he observes that in the U.S. there is a pervasive sense of entitlement and also a belief that the government will come to the rescue of the country, no matter how big the crisis or disaster. He questions that possibility given a sudden collapse and as a result feels that the suffering would be even more profound here.

For the purposes of this posting I am neither agreeing nor disagreeing with him. I am wondering out loud in the shape of "what if, just what if...?" For me, it fits in with James Kunstler's thesis elaborated in his book: The Long Emergency. It also heightens my desire to develop realistic self-sustaining practices and to develop connections with like minded people, to be a part of developing neo-communities. Finally it motivates me to continue to reduce my debt level, and to seriously cultivate a life of conscious simplification and non-overconsumption as a strategy for positioning myself for coming through difficult times. And if those difficult times don't come (in my lifetime,) then I will still have enormously enriched the quality of my life and the life of my family and community.

I encourage you to look at his presentation. I feel I can almost guaranty it will rivet your attention for an hour.

Let's see what discussion / comments come from his observations.

Addendum: 1/16/07...In the text above I said that for the purposes of this posting I was neither agreeing nor disagreeing with Mr. Orlov. The rest of the story is that it is my considered opinion that he is bringing our attention appropriately to pivotal issues which deserve our attention...now. It is my opinion that hard times they be a'comin. I'll be writing more about this.