Wednesday, September 05, 2007

A Refreshing Look Into A Future

I came across a new essay by Ran Prieur entitled "How to Save Civilization." It walks a new line for me, one that is different from grim visions of a post-apocalyptic post peak oil world and also different from updated versions of 1984.

Please read it. It is well worth your time. In my opinion it outlines thinking and action which should form a foundation for a more mature discussion of planning for the future. Sadly it would be political suicide for any of the current presidential candidates to address any of his points directly, but it has the potential in the hands of some to begin to shift some basic positions, across time. On the other hand, if the level of discussion of the candidates doesn't significantly shift away from their typical bullet points it will, through neglect, make the pain of the future even more intense.

Some quotes: "The deeper problem is that we are on an airplane designed by madmen to only work if it keeps going higher and faster, and the higher and faster we go, the harder we will eventually crash." This is in a context of energy usage, now and in the future, but it could as easily be addressing the shenanigans of the past several years with the process of seemingly ever increasing amounts of liquidity available to people.

And, "...we think we're turning off the air conditioner and bicycling to work to save the Earth. In fact, other people and other economies will just take our place at the Earth-gobbling table and eat it just as fast. what we're really saving is our future sanity, by practicing for the day when we're forced to reduce consumption." This quote really speaks to me and addresses several issues I have been writing about, e.g., the dangers of identifying ourselves with the amount of money and the number of toys which we have accumulated. I liked it also that he addressed the needs for defense to protect your basic sustenance from the "bad-guys."

A few days ago a friend gave me a copy of Lester Brown's book: Plan B 2.0. I have only read a few portions of it, but one of the issues I see with it is that it is premised on an allocation of radical amounts of money from the government to implement many of the ideas. (If I have misread that I apologize in advance.) Big money will do what big money does and I just don't see that as a viable option to turn things around for the planet.

Prieur's approach is different, as I see it. He seems to be saying, it's going to happen, and then it will be a whole new ball game and then here are some further thoughts as to how we can approach that situation such that we don't automatically find ourselves right back in the same situation all over again. Refreshing.

I am curious to hear people's reactions to his essay.

4 comments:

Paul said...

Alas, I've gotten interrupted 3 times trying to read the essay. I'm going ot finish it tomorrow. I'm intrigued by some of his thoughts. Thanks for calling it to my attention. I'll try to comment further tomorrow.

arcolaura said...

Very interesting essay, not because there is anything particularly new to me there, but because he has created a fairly brief yet comprehensive statement of fundamental intractable problems with our current course of development. I should look through it again - he has some effective analogies in there.

Paul said...

I appreciated several of his analogies and the general tone of the essay. Unfortunately -- and dangerously for me -- I agree with many of his opinions which blinds me to any fallacies.

At my age and in my situation, I'll never live to suffer the consequences of our insanity. Regardless, I feel a compulsion to live responsibly so as to maximize the future for my children, grandchildren and the children and grandchildren of people around the world.

I agree with his statement "If there's anything we want to save, we need to begin adapting it now so it can be done on that level, bottom to top." Only 2% of the US population now lives on farms and many of them don't own the land but are employees. We're losing the knowledge and ability to provide food without relying on oil or other sources of massive energy. Manual labor and artisan skills are seriously threatened. My sense of self-esteem is tied to the ability to care and provide for myself and my family. I want to increase the knowledge, skills and abilities to survive and enjoy a content and fulfilling life -- and I want to pass them on to a few individuals in the next generation.

Our world is going to change and that's a good thing. Some will not adapt and suffer; others will be given new opportunities.

Tim Hodgens said...

Laura: I totally agree.

Paul: Re being blinded to any of the fallacies...yes, that is a problem. The risk of selecting in only those writings / conversations which continue to bolster our point of view only.

One of my circuit breakers is to keep a skeptical sense about what I am hearing / reading / seeing (on the news and in the media. That can be hard for me because I tend to take in well written material very quickly - but I allow that to happen, and then the skeptical part comes in a bit later. It works well for me.

I hope you are right about these things not happening in our lifetimes. However, I am skeptical. But either way we have to do what we can to make sure that we don't lose all cultural knowledge of so many of the basics.

Your last paragraph says it so well.

Tim