Necessary Listening
I've heard that there has been some turbulence in the world economy recently...giggle, giggle.
Do yourself a really big favor and listen to this interview of Nassim Taleb by Charlie Rose, recorded on December 3.
Once you hear his discussion of the economy and "the turkey" and probability statements, you will irrevocably understand how we are fooled by the stock market over and again.
His real contribution is, however, more general than "the economy;" it is that improbable events play a significant role with massive consequences in all of our lives, individually and collectively. We are fooled by our tendency / need to focus on pattern recognition to give us the semblance of stability. The "trick," I think, is to widen the pattern on which we are making our predictions. As he says, it is unwise for a pilot to not expect storms.
It's all part of the process.
2 comments:
I've been wanting to watch this but am limited to downloading 200 MB per day and haven't been able to schedule it as yet. (I assume it's about 30 MB.) I read the eleven comments and am intrigued.
"His real contribution is...that improbable events play a significant role with massive consequences in all of our lives, individually and collectively." As I look back it's the improbable events that have made life interesting.
Personally, I've been enjoying this economic turbulence. I think it may have more intangible benefits than harm.
Thinking about this leads me to think that the presentation of improbable usually gets focused on the negative...as in, that's weird.
But a more positive spin is to say that it is a manifestation of the non-ordinary. With that we have a better chance of accepting it, perhaps with a sense of wonder. That may be a portal into the realm of the magical.
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