Tuesday, March 13, 2007

This Writing Stuff Can Be A Bit Risky

The last several entries I have made have been decidedly on the heavy side. I've been writing about spacing out, psychological shock, talking about difficult things, pandemics and social isolation, etc. But, what can I say, that's what I've been writing about and that what has been on my mind.

Also, I've been visiting two additional websites which look at themes which fit the "bad times, they be 'acomin" genre. One is Sudden Debt and is devoted to the shenanigans in the world of finance and the persistent question about how long the present bubble can continue before a major correction occurs. The other is Generational Dynamics which is about a way of looking at the world of trouble that the world is in, and how, when one looks at history from the point of view of the impact which successive generations have on the course of history, interesting patterns evolve which may be useful in predicting trends in current times.

John J. Xenakis, the author of GenerationalDynamics, posted a comment on my entry entitled: "A Little Technorati Drum Roll Please..." (2/14/07). In it, he states: "I like to tell people that what's coming is coming, and it can't be stopped by any politician or anyone else, any more than a politician can stop a tsunami. You can't stop it, but you can prepare for it. So I tell people this: Treasure the time you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation."

Powerful words. It reminded me of James Kunstler's encouragement to "enjoy the abundance while you can still have it." It also reminded me of a line in one of my previous posts where I said: "I wonder if Climate Change gives a hoot as to whether Mr. Cheney says that the American Way of life is not up for discussion."

So, I started thinking about those words and my recent topics, and I pushed the uncomfortable factor into the land of Murphy - of Murphy's Law - but on steroids. By this I mean, I started wondering about really bad scenarios and what John said about not being able to stop what's coming. The three scenarios were economic collapse, the pandemic, and a world war over oil - all happening approximately at the same time and the phrase "The Perfect Storm" popped into my head. It's a little like writing my own personal Stephen King novel in my head and then finding that I was drawn into it too uncomfortably far.

What happened was that I propelled myself into a perfect little storm in my mind and that became a little like a black hole in my consciousness which was absorbing my attention and my mind. I found that I was becoming more grim by the moment, I was thrown off "my game," and there was a background uneasiness about it all which made me restless. The whole storm was heightened by feelings of uncertainty.

It was unsettling, to put it mildly. And that is one of the reasons why I have been inactive on my blog for the last few weeks. I just knew I had to get myself out of the morass which I had created in my mind. (That is not to say that The Perfect Storm couldn't happen in external reality, but that it was not present in actuality, and I had become victim of my own internal virtual reality (mind) exercise. If you remember from one of my previous posts, I said that what happens in the mind influences the body and the emotions. And that's what happened to me over these last few weeks.)

I'm happy to say that "I'm back" and regaining my natural balance points and accustomed compass readings and can now start to talk about that process. To be continued...

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Tim,

Whew! Glad you're back.

I went through a period of several months in 2002-03 when I was depressed and couldn't sleep, as my study of Generational Dynamics increasingly made it clear to me where the world was going.

Since that time I've gotten very philosophical about it -- death is part of life -- that sort of stuff. Now I think of my web site as a public service, and I'm glad for the opportunity to explain to people what's going on and why, so that they can prepare themselves.

Just one correction, though. The coming Clash of Civilizations World War is not a war over oil. Oil is a factor, but it's probably the 10th or 15th down the list of "causes" of what's coming. Note that world wars have gone on for millennia, long before the use of oil became widespread.

Last year I wrote a piece about the 1916 Battle of the Somme, at a time when no one thought about oil. It was a horrible battle, resulting in over a million battlefield deaths. Soldiers would have to climb over piles of dead soldiers in order to continue their assaults.

I quoted World War I antiwar activist Wilfred Owen and his poem, "Anthem for Doomed Youth," which begins, "What passing-bells for these who die as cattle? Only the monstrous anger of the guns." He captured the essence of what was going on: the slaughter of huge masses of people, most of whom die without even a funeral.

Today's major "causes" are the same that they've always been -- conflicts over land, over food, over water, and so forth. Around the world today there are "megacities," each containing tens of millions of people with no access to farmland. Families in poverty in those cities often survive by foraging in large garbage dumps for scraps of food left over by people who can afford to buy food.

One cause of war that's more important than oil is the price of tortillas. This would never occur to most Americans, but few Americans realize that Mexico City, the capital of Mexico, is one of the largest megacities in the world, jam packed with some 20 million people. And tortillas are a dietary staple of the Mexicans. The price of tortillas has doubled in the last year, causing perhaps millions of additional Mexicans to go hungry.

As population continues to grow faster than the food supply, this problem of megacities multiplies. These problems have occurred in cycles throughout human history, and have gotten many times worse in the last two centuries because medical discoveries have lowered the infant mortality rate from 40-50% to 1-2%. That is, all those celebrated medical discoveries that allow babies to survive and thrive mean more massive wars than ever. You pay at the front end, or you pay at the back end. After the next world war, the world population will be thinned enough so that everyone will be properly fed for a few decades.

What will start the war? It can't be predicted, of course, but right now the most probable scenario looks like either a massive war with China triggered by a desire for independence by Taiwan, or a war between Israelis and Palestinians spinning out of control. The Iraq war and the fight over oil are important, but they're just sideshows.

So, I'll repeat what I said before: Treasure the time you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Anonymous said...

Fear of: {insert preference here}

Result: Depression, distraction, in ability to concentrate, not enjoying the things one normally loves to do, feeling of hopelessness.

Hmm, Sounds like suicide, and a million other "conditions", Doctor.

Take two aspirin and call me in the morning. We can't help those unwilling to help themselves.

Prognosis: In your case it sounds like your on the way to recovery. Yeah!

-P

Tim Hodgens said...

John: Thanks for the comment. I was not saying that a war over oil was or wasn't the major tripwire for a perfect storm. I was merely saying that it was the one which came to mind and was 1 of the legs of a three-legged stool which could create a perfect storm in external reality. Since oil has only very recently become a potential hornets nest in the history of mankind, it cannot account for all of the previous violent upheavals throughout history.

Your comment about the price of tortillas is important for those for whom that price is imortant. And 20 million (!) people alone in Mexico City constitutes an important group. As you mentioned in your original post about tortillas, it is a sad state of affairs that lays the cause of that distress right at the feet of the American public as led by this administration. That is, so much of the corn which would eventually be used for tortillas will now be going towards becoming an ethanol additive for our cars.

Proxima: Yikes, I can be dramatic in my words, and yes I was thrown off my game and into a darker place, but it was never anywhere near that outcome.

Most people choose not to talk about their negative states. In fact, much of our whole society is designed to not go anywhere near anything less than optimal thinking and optimal states. Of course that can never work in the long term but that is still how we are coached by massive doses from all of the media, etc.

I chose to put myself into that state. What I had not quite bargained for was some of it's intensity. However, I am stronger from having been there and back. And will probably jump back in again in future. Learning the skill of "releases" (think judo) from mental states is, in my opinion, an important skill for well functioning across time. It may well be a survival skill, but definitely a quality of life skill.

Anyway, it's all an attempt to further "prepare" and also to understand the powers of the mind -which is a very powerful place - both positive and negative.

Perhaps the true power of the present can only be approached after one can see how the mind creates these states and how we can get stuck in one side of those polarities or the other.

That may be a bit "dense" and maybe I'll write more about that at another time.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like you are referring to Paul Allen's new pet project of mapping the human brain.

I just don't want Doctors to think they can fix things by creating "A Brave New World", I'm sure your familiar with the reference.

I'm really starting to understand the interpetation of the Yin-Yang symbol, as apparent by my comments at the Frumpy Professor, who is going through a mental melt down.

You had extended an offer to have coffee with him. I'm trying really hard to see that he takes you up on that offer (see full response at the Echotree).

I hope you are not angry with me to be so bold as to try an reinforce your offer, which I know I have no right to do so. It was your offer, not mine. But we both know he needs someone, not just the computer.

If you are willing to talk about your emotions with the loss of your brother, I think it would help him, if he is willing to listen.

Tim Hodgens said...

Proxma: Thanks for your additional comment. There's a lot in it.

1. I'll have to look up what Paul Allen is doing with respect to mapping the brain. I will be curious to see if it is basically a radiological survey of brain activity under various conditions of task and emotion, etc. Or if it is an extension of the process called neurofeedback. Since I know you love books, and if you're interested in neurofeedback, you might want to borrow a copy of Symphony in the Brain. I don't recall the author. Or if Allen is going off in an entirely different direction.

2. Concerning Huxley, and considering your visual challenges, wasn't he also involved in vision improvement? My recollection is that he was severely visually challenged.

3. The "truth" contained behind the yin-yang symbol is both simple and profound. With respect to my little perfect storm "experiment" the change or shift out of one polarity came at the point of intensity of that polarity...that's the message of the little dot containing the seed of the opposite to that polarity. Powerful messages.

4. No prob with encouraging the "Frump" to pick up on my offer for a cup'a.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps my simple approach would be deemed tunnel vision or naive, but the word balance comes to mind...anytime I spend too much time contemplating one thing or the other, it just doesn't work...especially those things which I can't control...in which case I try to give my anxieties over to God...

People have been predicting the earth's demise since the begining of time...and it will probably happen at some point, but I think I have to choose today to take care of....and do what I can to make today the best it can be...of course being mindful of yesterday and tommorrow.

Glad you are back...with compass readings back on track...I think it is a difficult time to be in balance...

K

Tim Hodgens said...

Anonymous K: I couldn't agree with you more. As I look again at my post, I realize that the reason I used the "black hole" analogy was to capture the "pull" of that space, which has a tendency to take on a life of its own.

Focusing should be a short term process, followed by flowing back into the fluid. 'Tis to be practised and cultivated.

Overfocusing is not wise when it becomes habitual.

As I out for my morning walk today, I was already collecting some thoughts for a later post about this exact process - and how important it is to regularly come back to a point of simply being present - now. The trick is to do that for the heightened positive states as well as the negative states.

The paradox is that by being able to let go of one paves the way for letting go of the other.

My guess is that throughout all of history it has always been a difficult time to be in balance and each age probably feels its the worst - at some time.

But yes, this is again a tremulous time for the planet and for all of its inhabitants.

Anonymous said...

Thank you.
-P

Anonymous said...

> People have been predicting the
> earth's demise since the begining
> of time...and it will probably
> happen at some point, but I think I
> have to choose today to take care
> of....and do what I can to make
> today the best it can be...of course
> being mindful of yesterday and
> tommorrow.

I agree with this in general, but nobody's predicting the end of the world, and to characterize it that way permits something of a copout, because there's no way to prepare for the end of the world.

But in terms of the things that are coming, there are a number of things you can do to prepare so that you, your family, your community and your nation will be better prepared. And these aren't drastic things -- they're just common sense things that are good ideas anyway.

1 - You can save your money, and not spend a single penny that you don't need to spend. 2 - You can stock up on enough dried or canned food and water, medicines and batteries, so that you and your family can live for a few weeks. 3 - You can transfer your savings from the stock market into Treasury notes or cash.

Nobody expected the 1929 crash before it happened, and nobody expected the Pearl Harbor attack before it happened. Even if you're blissfully warm and cozy in the belief that today's clever politicians could never let something like that happen again, you can still do a few common sense preparation things that are worth doing anyway.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Tim Hodgens said...

hmmm,interesting how things subtly morph. For example; "predicting the earth's demise," to: "the end of the world."

Maybe I'm splitting hairs there.

But let me morph it one more step to: "the end of the world as we know it."

It's one thing if your "world" changes because you have a MI, or stroke out, or lose your home to fire, lose all your assets, etc., etc.

And it's another if your world as you know it changes and it changes for everyone else at the same time.
For example, if your state suffered an earthquake which registers an 8 on the Richter scale, it's not just your world, but that of everyone within let's say 5 miles of your home. (I don't know if those numbers are what it would be like in terms of distance from epicenter.)

And, not to belabor the point, it is yet again another exponential level of experience if the event is on a global or near global level. And that was what my little internal reverie / state was all about.

The earth wasn't ending, the world wasn't ending, but the world as we have become accustomed to it, is moving from one state to another. And that move will largely be discontinuous.

In my "perfect storm" some would transition well, some wouldn't but my guess is that virtually all would be shaken, scared, disoriented for at least a while, and many would walk around in shock.

I agree with both Anonymous K for being in the present, with John X with living wisely and preparing in material ways (John, I know you mean to prepare on many levels) and I agree with myself also that another level of preparation is to practise equanimity in the face of uncertainty, upheaval, setbacks, etc., and also to practise recovery when we are solidly thrown off balance - in small and large ways. (How's that for a run-on sentence?)

Steve Williams said...

Your post reminds me of how much control my brain has over my sense of well-being. I am capable of wrestling in my head with an amazing number of trivial or serious issues and if my activity remains in my head I find my sense of well being and life dwindles towards despair.

Regardless of the situation or issue, I've found for myself that if I engage thought without action I am lost. And by action I am not speaking of anything grand or call to political action. I just mean standing up and cleaning the kitchen, or walking the dog, vote, drop a dollar in someone's hand. The action doesn't matter as much as me making the effort to act.

I accept that cannot change (insert crisis here, large or small) what life will deliver to me. I can accept what comes along and act accordingly. This is too complicated a topic to sum up in a comment. It took me decades to come to the place I am now. I'll just say the results of taking actions with my head in a place of acceptance changes my world and the psychological and emotional fear falls away. (I do have moments though!)

I have been working on a post for Scooter in the Sticks about this for awhile now. Amazing enough, riding was the last key necessary for me to understand how I was making my life unnecessarily complicated and generating waves of fear.

Bad things may be coming. If I'm here when they arrive I will do the best I can.

Anyways, as I start to ramble on I just wanted to thank you for your thought provoking posts.

Steve Williams
Scooter in the Sticks

Tim Hodgens said...

Steve,

Thanks for your comment and it's always a pleasure to welcome you back.

As always there is much wisdom in your words. With regard to your statement: "Regardless of the situation or issue, I've found for myself that if I engage thought without action I am lost. And by action I am not speaking of anything grand or call to political action. I just mean standing up and cleaning the kitchen, or walking the dog, vote, drop a dollar in someone's hand. The action doesn't matter as much as me making the effort to act," I would like to make a brief comment or two.

First, there is an old saying that "movement is the enemy of depression." It captures a part of what you have discovered for yourself.

But your enjoinder to do something, do anything is almost right on.

However, there is one general area of "doing" which can be problematic if a person is in a depressed state. That is, if the person engages in actions which reinforce the depression. For example, a person finds that he/she is brooding (internal) and then decides to get up and start doing something (external - but remember that there will be carryover from the "depressive brooding state" into the actions) then the choice of action could reinforce and intensify the brooding. For example, if the person starts selecting in material from reading the newspaper, etc., etc., that just further add fuel to the fire of the brooding.

So I find that the simpler things are actually more effective, e.g., doing the dishes, going for a walk, reading cartoons in the New Yorker, cutting out political cartoons which tickle your funny bone, laugh deeply, show it to someone around you, make copies, and pass them out to others.

There are other actions which are repetitive which are also self-reinforcing. You have addressed these type of issues in your superb posts on your site and I always value them even if I don't always leave a comment...mea culpa, mea culpa.

Tim

n.b. I edited this comment so it would read more easily